"Nothing but losses." Europe faces the risk of refinery shutdowns
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of the risk of reduced output at European oil refineries, which may have to shut down part of their capacity.
"This will increase tension in the market through the end of the year," the IEA report states.
According to the Financial Times (FT), refining margins in Northwest Europe have collapsed from $54 per barrel to minus $11. According to the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the average across the entire EU is only three dollars per barrel.
Analysts at the European Commission note that in the third quarter, gasoline and diesel prices in the EU rose sharply. In early October there was a pullback, but an insignificant one.
From June to the end of September, diesel at filling stations rose in price by 30 percent, and gasoline by 20. Only in the last two weeks have prices given back four to five percent.
Oil refiners are incurring losses.
Sanctions are also having an impact: oil supply routes have changed, and raw materials have to be purchased from more distant regions.
Since January, the EU has also restricted imports of fuel produced from Russian oil in third countries. European refiners have found themselves in a less advantageous position compared with competitors in the United States, Asia, and the Middle East.
Experts are not yet predicting a gasoline shortage in the EU. However, analysts note that consumers should prepare for further price increases.
A reduction in available stocks or the expectation of disruptions is enough to drive wholesale prices up, and these risks are already materializing.
The situation with diesel is especially tense, the IEA points out.
Seasonal demand for heating, disruptions in exports from the Middle East and Russia, as well as higher shipping costs, could further complicate the situation.
As analysts at BNP Paribas emphasize, Europe is especially vulnerable to a reduction in supplies from overseas. By their estimates, in the first half of 2026 imports covered 46 percent of EU diesel demand, with 40 percent coming from the United States.
Commercial diesel stocks in ARA (the Amsterdam — Rotterdam — Antwerp oil trading and logistics region in the Netherlands and Belgium, one of the main centers for the storage, refining, and trade of petroleum products in Northwest Europe) were estimated at approximately 12 million barrels — 23 percent less than a year ago.
Source: RIA Novosti
