Farhad Mamedov: Azerbaijan's Actions Are an Open Message to Internal Groups in Iran

The strike by Iran on Nakhchivan, the reaction of the President of Azerbaijan, and subsequent events have created tension within Azerbaijani society.

Pro-Iranian groups in Europe and information resources from Iran are conducting a massive information campaign against Azerbaijan. They are using worn-out narratives such as 'Israeli military bases in Azerbaijan,' spy networks, sabotage, and so on.

Unfortunately, there are many talking heads in Turkey as well, including former admirals and generals, who have joined this campaign. These so-called experts are so out of their depth that one wonders how they ever managed fleets and military units.

Let us try to understand the situation and the reason behind Azerbaijan's reaction.

It is worth carefully listening to the speech of President Ilham Aliyev:

• Gestures toward Iran: visiting the embassy, assisting in the evacuation of Iranian diplomats from Iran, and a statement on the inadmissibility of using Azerbaijan's territory and airspace against Iran.
• A clear statement that Azerbaijan does not intend to be drawn into war!
• A vivid display of anger and an announcement of preventive measures.

Sharp Tone of Statements

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev spoke in a language that decision-makers in Iran understand.

Note that for an entire week, Iran has been striking Gulf countries in response to attacks by the US and Israel. During this time, there were no apparent disagreements within Iran's leadership.

Only after the sharp statement by President Ilham Aliyev do we see discord within Iran's leadership regarding strikes on neighbors.

Military Preparations

Baku is well aware of internal processes in Iran and how internal groups in Iran 'breathe' toward Azerbaijan.

Information from the State Security Service of Azerbaijan about planned terrorist attacks in Baku dates back to last fall. This can be inferred from the clothing seen in operational footage. At the time of the arrests, a 'foreign state' was mentioned; now, it has been named directly - the IRGC!

After the Iranian strike on Nakhchivan, the main goal of Azerbaijan's leadership is to ensure that such strikes are not repeated, as is happening with Gulf countries.

For this reason, the closure of the diplomatic mission, the closure of the border for transit, and bringing the armed forces to readiness level 1 to repel aggression have been implemented.

In other words, Azerbaijan has taken all the steps that should ideally have been implemented at the outset of escalating tensions.

This is an indicator of the seriousness of Azerbaijan's position and a signal to Tehran and all groups that continuation is not advisable!

The steps taken by Azerbaijan's leadership do not bring another Iranian strike closer but minimize its consequences if it occurs.

If someone in Iran intends to carry out further strikes on Azerbaijan, no actions by Azerbaijan will stop them. These groups can only be stopped by internal opposition. Azerbaijan's actions are adequate to the situation and serve as an open message to internal groups in Iran.

The situation is extremely complex and depends on many variables currently shaped in Iran. The unpredictability of Iran and the groups within its leadership pose a threat to its neighbors.

It is better to be prepared for these threats than to accept strikes and get used to them.

We are facing a challenging period that we must navigate while maintaining our positions in the region.

Author: Head of the South Caucasus Research Center, Farhad Mamedov