UN warns of almost inevitable new record-hot year by 2030
By 2030, the world will almost inevitably face a new record-hot year amid the intensifying climate crisis.
This is stated in a new report by the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
According to the document, there is an 86% probability that at least one year in the period from 2026 to 2030 will be hotter than 2024, which is currently considered the warmest on record.
The report also states that there is a 75% probability that the average global temperature in 2026–2030 will exceed the pre-industrial level by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The authors of the report link the intensification of the climate crisis to the continued growth of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels.
According to scientists' estimates, global warming is already causing one death every minute, and this figure could rise if emissions are not rapidly reduced.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell called the current heat wave in Europe a "brutal reminder" of the consequences of the climate crisis.
"Many other parts of the world are also suffering severely, including India and other regions of Asia," he noted.
Scientists have repeatedly warned that exceeding the 1.5-degree warming threshold could lead to even more destructive heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods, and complicate societies' adaptation to climate change.
At the same time, the WMO notes that the probability of exceeding the 2-degree mark in any single year in the period from 2026 to 2030 is less than 1%.
An additional factor in temperature growth could be the natural climate phenomenon El Niño, which is expected to form by the end of this year. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the probability of El Niño occurring between December 2026 and February 2027 is 96%, and the probability of a strong El Niño is estimated at 35%.
Lead author of the report Leon Hermanson noted that the expected El Niño increases the likelihood that 2027 will become the new record-hot year.
The report also states that over the next five winters, temperatures in the Arctic will average 2.8 degrees above recent levels, meaning the region is warming more than three times faster than the global average.
