Scientists warn of risk of one of the strongest El Niños in history
The world could face a new powerful El Niño phenomenon in the coming weeks.
The World Meteorological Organization issued this warning, noting that the next phase of the natural climate cycle could intensify global warming and lead to more frequent extreme weather events in various regions of the planet.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon associated with periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs as a result of changes in atmospheric circulation and ocean currents that allow warmer water masses to spread over significant distances. El Niño affects temperature regimes, precipitation amounts, and the frequency of droughts, floods, and storms in different parts of the world.
According to experts, the emerging El Niño is likely to gain strength throughout the remainder of 2026. A number of national meteorological services already allow that the upcoming event could be one of the most powerful in the history of observations. Some experts do not rule out that it could reach the level of the so-called “super El Niño” — an extremely rare phenomenon capable of substantially influencing climate processes around the world.
Specialists are currently closely monitoring the state of the central Pacific Ocean, analyzing water temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind flow patterns. These indicators make it possible to understand how quickly the process is developing and how serious its consequences may be.
Head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office Professor Adam Scaife stated that researchers are confident a major climate event is approaching. According to him, there is a possibility that the upcoming El Niño could be one of the strongest during the entire period of instrumental observations.
Such events occur relatively rarely. Since the middle of the last century, climatologists have recorded only a few episodes that can be classified as the most powerful. At the same time, each El Niño develops according to its own scenario. Its consequences can differ substantially depending on the region and time of year, and while some countries face drought and record heat, others, on the contrary, experience the effects of heavy rains, floods, and destructive storms.
History shows that strong El Niño episodes can affect not only the climate but also the global economy. In the past, they have repeatedly led to reduced agricultural yields, disruption of global supply chains, rising food prices, and significant financial losses.
However, even if the emerging El Niño does not reach the “super” category, its consequences could still be very serious. The reason is that Earth’s climate today is already substantially different from what it was several decades ago. The planet continues to warm under the influence of anthropogenic factors, primarily greenhouse gas emissions linked to human activity.
According to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the research organization Berkeley Earth, the combination of El Niño and ongoing global warming could lead to new temperature records. He considers it highly likely that 2027 will become the hottest year in the history of meteorological observations.
The expert recalled that in 1998 the world already experienced one of the strongest El Niño episodes, which was accompanied by record-high temperatures for that time. However, he noted, if climatic indicators from that period are compared with modern conditions, many temperature values from the end of the last century would no longer appear so extreme. This, scientists say, clearly demonstrates the scale of changes occurring in the global climate under the influence of human activity.
Source: BBC
