Britain evaluates Brexit outcomes after 10 years

Britain's exit from the European Union has led to a reduction in the country's economy by 2–6% compared to a hypothetical scenario in which Brexit would not have taken place.

This is stated in a report by the UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) center ahead of the tenth anniversary of the referendum on EU membership.

Analysts emphasize that this is not a "one-time crisis," but a gradual decline in trade, investment, and productivity.

At the same time, as UKICE analysts point out, after several years when Brexit was "practically not discussed," British parties are beginning to raise this issue again. Labour claims that closer relations with the EU are considered "the biggest prize" available for the British economy, while the Reform Party and Conservatives have promised to break any new agreements with the EU signed by the Labour cabinet.

Keir Starmer's government sought to "reset" relations with the EU and conclude a number of new cooperation agreements, the report says, but so far "the only completed" one is Britain's return to the Erasmus+ program (the European Union program funding education, vocational training, youth, and sports).

According to experts, the "reset" proposed by Labour is unlikely to add more than 0.5% to the UK's GDP over 15 years.

The authors also note that since the end of 2022, a "clear and stable majority" of Britons have favored returning to the EU. On average, according to polls this year, 60% of citizens state this, while 40% would prefer to remain outside the EU.

In addition, the report notes that migration from the EU has sharply decreased as a result of Brexit, but this has been "more than offset by an increase in migration from outside the EU, which has led to mixed economic consequences."

The referendum on Britain's membership in the EU was held on June 23, 2016, with 51.9% of voters supporting exit. The country formally ceased to be an EU member on January 31, 2020, after 47 years of membership.

Source: RBC