ADB: Oil may rise to $155 per barrel in worst-case scenario
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has presented three scenarios for the development of the situation amid the conflict in the Middle East and their potential impact on global oil prices.
As reported by Report, this is stated in the April issue of the Asian Development Outlook 2026 by the Asian Development Bank.
According to estimates, in the first scenario, which assumes short-term supply disruptions lasting one quarter, Brent crude oil prices could reach around $105 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026.
In the second scenario, with disruptions lasting up to two quarters, the cost of oil could rise to $130 per barrel during the same period, followed by a gradual decline.
The most negative, third scenario envisages severe disruptions throughout the year—in this case, prices could reach $155 per barrel as early as the second quarter of 2026 and remain at elevated levels until 2027.
The ADB notes that the rise in oil prices will be accompanied by accelerating inflation. Longer disruptions in energy supplies and logistics failures could lead to tighter global financial conditions and increased pressure on the economies of the region.
Economic growth in developing countries of Asia and the Pacific region, according to the bank’s forecasts, will slow to 5.1% in 2026–2027, compared to 5.4% last year.
Inflation in the region is expected to rise to 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, compared to 3% previously. The main factors of pressure are identified as the conflict in the Middle East and persistent uncertainty in global trade.
ADB Chief Economist Albert Park emphasized that the protracted conflict in the Middle East remains a key risk for the region, as it could lead to higher energy and food prices, as well as tighter financial conditions.
At the same time, the report notes that the region enters this challenging global period with relatively resilient domestic factors—high domestic demand, stable labor markets, and growing public investment in infrastructure.
Economic growth in China is expected to slow to 4.6% in 2026 and to 4.5% in 2027 amid weakness in the real estate market and declining export activity. In India, growth is projected to decline to 6.9%, with a subsequent acceleration to 7.3% in 2027, driven by sustained domestic demand.
In the Pacific region countries, the most noticeable slowdown is forecasted—from 4.2% in 2025 to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
The ADB also warns that rising energy prices and potential disruptions in fertilizer markets could intensify inflationary pressure on global food prices.
