IMF warns of global recession risk due to escalation of conflict in the Middle East
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects that further escalation of the war in the Middle East and ongoing disruptions in the oil market could push the global economy to the brink of recession.
This was reported by the Al-Jazeera television channel.
The IMF notes that in the worst-case scenario, repeated shocks in the energy market could slow global economic growth to 2% from the current 3.1%. Under such a scenario, the average oil price could reach $110 per barrel in 2026 and $125 in 2027.
The most favorable scenario assumes a short-term conflict and a normalization of oil prices in the second half of 2026, with an average price of about $82 per barrel by the end of the year.
An intermediate scenario envisions a more protracted conflict, with oil prices remaining at around $100 per barrel this year and dropping to $75 in 2027, while global economic growth slows to 2.5% this year from 3.4% in 2025.
The channel quotes the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, as saying that with persistent energy disruptions and no clear path to ending the conflict, the intermediate or unfavorable scenarios appear most likely.
