Fitch expects Azerbaijan's strategic foreign exchange reserves to grow to $93 billion

International rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Azerbaijan's long-term issuer default ratings (IDR) in foreign and local currencies at "BBB-" with a "Stable" outlook.

As Report transmits citing Fitch, Azerbaijan's country ceiling is set at "BBB," one notch above the long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating ("BBB-").

Azerbaijan's ratings are supported by the country's very strong external position, the lowest level of public debt among countries with a comparable rating, and high financial flexibility provided by substantial sovereign wealth fund assets.

"Higher oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East will boost oil and gas revenues, leading to an increase in sovereign foreign exchange assets to $93 billion (or 117% of projected GDP) in 2026. Of this amount, 84% will be held in the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), with the remainder in the international reserves of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA). Net sovereign foreign assets will reach 73% of GDP, the highest figure among countries rated in the 'BBB' category," the statement said.

Fitch notes that higher oil prices combined with moderate import demand will increase the current account surplus to 9% of GDP in 2026 from 4.6% of GDP in 2025. An expected decline in oil and gas prices in 2027 will reduce the current account surplus; however, it is likely to remain above peer levels and continue to support further accumulation of foreign exchange assets, albeit at a more moderate pace.

"After rising to a projected 5.6% of GDP in 2026, the consolidated budget surplus is expected to narrow in 2027 due to lower oil prices, moderate growth in non-oil revenues, and a relatively stable level of expenditures as the government continues to prioritize defense and the reconstruction of liberated territories," the agency's analysts noted.

It should be noted that Azerbaijan's strategic foreign exchange reserves stood at $87 billion 916.2 million as of May 1, 2026. This represents a 15% increase compared with May 1 of the previous year.

According to the State Statistics Committee, the country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $2 billion 765.1 million in April.

At the end of 2025, Azerbaijan's strategic foreign exchange reserves were estimated at $85.1 billion.