What will the manat's exchange rate depend on in the medium and long term?
President Ilham Aliyev, in his speech at an event held as part of the II Azerbaijan International Investment Forum, stated that the manat's exchange rate has remained stable since April 2017 and that Azerbaijan has a positive trade balance.
This was reported on his page on the social network Facebook by Vugar Bayramov, a member of the Milli Majlis Committee on Economic Policy, Industry and Entrepreneurship, who also noted the following: "The exchange rate of the national currency is one of the important criteria for strengthening financial stability. In this context, exchange rate policy has become one of the key areas for ensuring macroeconomic stability."
In his Facebook status, V. Bayramov addressed the following questions — "How will the manat's exchange rate change going forward?" and "Has the risk of devaluation been completely eliminated?"
"The exchange rate of the national currency is most influenced by the volume of foreign currency inflows into the country. World oil prices remain the main factor affecting Azerbaijan's balance of payments. High oil prices, as well as the growth of non-oil exports, made it possible to maintain a positive balance in Azerbaijan's foreign trade turnover for the first seven months of 2026," the member of parliament notes.
According to Vugar Bayramov, in the first seven months of 2026 Azerbaijan's exports increased by 39% in nominal terms and by 11% in real terms, reaching 20.1 billion dollars (34.17 billion manats): "At the same time, higher growth was recorded in non-oil and gas exports — they doubled. During this period, Azerbaijan exported non-oil and gas products worth 5.9 billion dollars (10.03 billion manats). Another important point was the reduction in imports. Azerbaijan's imports fell by 43%, to 9.8 billion dollars (16.66 billion manats). This means that during the specified period a positive trade balance of more than 10 billion dollars (17 billion manats) was formed. As can be seen, the positive dynamics in foreign trade, as well as in the balance of payments, over the past months of 2026 have made it possible to maintain equilibrium in the foreign exchange market."
The member of parliament notes that, on the other hand, the Central Bank managed to increase foreign exchange reserves through sterilization measures amid a decline in demand for the dollar: "In the first nine months of 2026, the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves grew by 3.8 billion dollars (6.46 billion manats). The Central Bank ended 2025 with reserves of 11.5 billion dollars (19.55 billion manats), and currently the volume of its reserves stands at 15.3 billion dollars (26.01 billion manats). During the past months of the current year, the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves increased every month compared with the previous month."
"Current indicators make it possible to maintain equilibrium in the foreign exchange market. At the same time, since Azerbaijan has not switched to a floating exchange rate regime, in the medium and long term the manat's exchange rate will directly depend on the position of the Central Bank," V. Bayramov concludes.
