Isw: Russia may use Belarus for strikes on western Ukraine

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that Russia may be preparing the information ground for using Belarusian territory in drone attacks on Ukraine.

In a new report, analysts drew attention to a statement by Belarusian Security Council Secretary Alexander Volfovich, who reported allegedly 116 cases of Ukrainian drones crossing the Belarusian border over the past week. According to him, some of the drones could have been aimed at border infrastructure facilities.

The ISW believes that such statements could be used by Moscow as justification for launching attack drones from Belarusian territory at Ukrainian facilities, primarily in the western regions of the country.

This concerns, in particular, possible attacks by Shahed- and Molniya-type drones on critical infrastructure and logistics routes, including the M-06 Kyiv–Chop highway and railway lines connecting Ukraine with Poland.

According to the analysts, the use of Belarusian territory could increase the effectiveness of strikes by allowing attacks on moving targets and expanding the depth of strikes into the Ukrainian rear.

At the same time, the ISW emphasized that at present there are no signs of Belarus preparing for a ground invasion of Ukraine. Analysts also do not record a concentration of forces sufficient to conduct such an operation.