Kings of the road. Who is the favorite of the Baku track?
Baku is once again getting ready for speed. The Azerbaijan Grand Prix traditionally does not forgive mistakes: here the longest straights give way to the narrow corners of the Old City, and a single unsuccessful maneuver can instantly wipe out an entire race weekend.
In 2026, the intrigue is especially great. Championship leader Kimi Antonelli arrives in Baku after yet another victory and with a serious advantage in the overall standings, but George Russell, Lando Norris, and Max Verstappen remain close by — drivers capable of taking advantage of any mistake by a rival. So who looks like the main contender for victory on the streets of Baku? Let's take a look at the favorites of the 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
We would like to begin, of course, with the leader of the overall standings. The gap between Antonelli and his Mercedes teammate George Russell is already 81 points. After the Baku race, 8 more Grands Prix remain in the season; however, in the capital of Azerbaijan the Italian can take another step forward and increase his already large lead over his pursuers. Moreover, Kimi has not yet won in Baku, which is an additional motivation. Last year his gap to Spain's Carlos Sainz in Baku was about two and a half seconds, which prevented Antonelli from climbing onto the third step of the podium. By the way, he finished more than 21 seconds behind Red Bull's Verstappen, who won that race.
Russell was second then, 14 seconds behind the Dutchman. No one has cancelled the internal rivalry within the German team, and that is why George himself, being Antonelli's teammate, will try to reduce the gap in the drivers' standings. But he has not won in Baku either. The Briton's best result was that very second place. Both drivers have their fans among Azerbaijani motorsport enthusiasts as well, which also speaks of support from the grandstands, taking into account, of course, the Mercedes fans themselves.
As for the former Mercedes driver and now Ferrari representative Lewis Hamilton, unlike the drivers mentioned above, he is the most experienced on the Baku track. He has won here and he has crashed here — in a word, he has been through fire, water, and brass pipes. True, the Baku track has usually not been favorable to the Italian team. And here we are talking about the final race. Monaco's Charles Leclerc is a true master of qualifying, having earned a bunch of poles (even four in a row) in recent years in the capital of Azerbaijan, but in the decisive races he has frankly been out of luck. Sometimes he has not even made it to the finish. The variability of the car from race to race, which Leclerc spoke about ahead of the Grand Prix, could work either in his favor or against him. We will see what optimal setup he manages to find this time.
Now about McLaren. It is precisely the British team that has taken, perhaps, the biggest step forward in recent years. Lando Norris is the reigning champion, but he is unlikely to be able to retain the title, given the situation in the drivers' table. His gap to Antonelli is approaching one hundred points. By the way, Norris was third at the last Spanish Grand Prix, and his last win came three races ago in the Netherlands. His teammate, Australian Oscar Piastri, is in the opposite situation. He was first in the capital of Azerbaijan two years ago, and last year he ended the final race almost as soon as it began. That is why the first thing he noted was the combination of braking zones that he needs to be ready for in order to repeat the success of two years ago. Piastri is only seventh in the standings, and he finished the race in Spain in eighth place. On the other hand, at Monza he finished in the top five. The Australian notes that finding the optimal setup, which Leclerc also spoke about, is the main component of success.
Red Bull should not be written off either. Yes, perhaps this car no longer has such a lead in configurations and in results as in previous years. But it is precisely the drivers of this team who have already won in Baku many times. In addition, it is Red Bull driver Max Verstappen who is the reigning champion in Baku. He became the second driver to break the so-called "Baku syndrome." The first, by the way, was also a driver of this team, Sergio Perez (now racing for Cadillac). The Dutchman's experience helps him in the most difficult moments. In Spain he was second, two weeks earlier at Monza he was third. This season Max has not yet won a single time, and he will try first and foremost to correct this not very successful statistic. The Baku track is far more familiar to him than to almost all the Grand Prix participants. This season the team even has a certain kind of competition. Due to Isack Hadjar's injury, Liam Lawson, who replaced him in the last two races, performed quite well, although his main team is the junior outfit Racing Bulls.
These were the main teams and drivers that could become the main favorites of the Baku race; however, it is precisely this track that has always brought a lot of surprises. Therefore, the Racing Bulls, Alpine, Haas, Audi, Williams, Aston Martin, and Cadillac teams may well provide real competition to the leaders of the season. After all, there are such renowned drivers here as Pierre Gasly, who also knows how to surprise, Carlos Sainz, and Franco Colapinto. Alas, Valtteri Bottas, Sergio Perez, and Fernando Alonso are having far from their best seasons in teams that trail the favorites, but it is precisely they who have set the tone on the Baku track for many years. Why not surprise us this time, since the Azerbaijan Grand Prix has always been full of real surprises for true lovers of the racing element…
EMIN AKHMEDOV
