The Times: How shadow envoys quietly help Russia emerge from isolation

The Times published an article describing how German lobbyists and former politicians are "helping Russia emerge from isolation."

Author Oliver Moody of the article "Shadow intermediaries quietly help Russia emerge from international isolation" writes that they meet with Putin's associates — and this is causing concern among European allies.

We present the material to readers:

"German lobbyists and former politicians meet with people from Putin's circle, causing concern among European allies.

An informal network of German supporters of cooperation with Russia is valuable to Moscow, as through it the Kremlin can send signals to representatives of Germany's leading political parties who are more inclined to take Russian interests into account.

First, the Kremlin put forward the candidacy of Gerhard Schröder — the former chancellor of Germany who later became a pro-Russian lobbyist — as an intermediary for possible ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine.

Then Brussels political circles began discussing the name of Angela Merkel, Schröder's successor, who after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 facilitated the Minsk agreements between Kyiv and Moscow.

Recently, attention has shifted to German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who was once a political ally of Schröder and later served as foreign minister under Merkel. He is also being considered as a possible unofficial peace mediator in relations with Vladimir Putin's regime.

However, while high-level diplomatic speculation yields no results, a group of German lobbyists and former politicians has quietly established a stable unofficial channel of communication with the Russian government.

Last week, a small delegation that included former head of the Federal Chancellery under Merkel Ronald Pofalla and former Brandenburg Prime Minister Matthias Platzeck held a closed meeting in Baku with several people from Putin's circle.

According to German outlets Die Zeit and ARD, which were the first to report on the meeting, the Russian side was represented in particular by Valery Fadeev, who heads the Russian Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights.

Also participating in the meeting was Viktor Zubkov, former deputy prime minister of Russia and now chairman of the board of directors of the state energy concern Gazprom.

This was another meeting of the informal Russian-German network that considers itself the successor to the "Petersburg Dialogue" — a platform that previously united representatives of the elites of both countries but ceased to exist in 2021.

After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the main group of German supporters of dialogue with Russia, led by Pofalla, the last chairman of the "Petersburg Dialogue," maintained these contacts. Prior to the current meeting, at least four similar events had already taken place in luxury hotels in Baku and Abu Dhabi.

The meetings are reported to have been held at the Four Seasons hotel in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Previous meetings also involved Ralf Stegner, an influential left-wing deputy of Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD), to which Schröder and Platzeck belong, as well as Stephan Holthoff-Pförtner, a former state minister from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) closely linked to senior CDU deputy Armin Laschet.

The German participants describe the Baku format in very vague terms, calling it an exclusively private initiative.

The German government has also distanced itself from these contacts. Friedrich Merz's Chancellery chief of staff Thorsten Frei stated that he still sees no grounds to believe that Russia is ready for substantive negotiations on the war in Ukraine.

"All international attempts to achieve this have failed completely, and each time the responsibility lay with Russia," Frei told Die Zeit.

Russia expert John Lough of the think tanks Chatham House and New Eurasian Strategies Centre noted that this format "is clearly not part of official German government policy."

According to him: "However, it is useful for Russia as a channel for transmitting signals to representatives of the SPD and CDU who instinctively tend to seek compromise with Moscow."

Lough also emphasized: "Germany remains one of the Kremlin's main targets due to its economic power and potential ability to rebuild its own defense and become the center of a new European security system that could gradually replace NATO."

Nevertheless, diplomats from some of Germany's European allies fear that something more may lie behind these meetings.

At the end of last year, it was reported that Pofalla had secured the German Foreign Ministry's consent for a possible visit by Mikhail Shvydkoy, the Russian president's special representative for international cultural cooperation.

There is no evidence that this trip actually took place, although it is assumed that Shvydkoy retains a valid Schengen visa from a previous visit to Austria.

In Berlin, there are also speculations that Pofalla, who has high-level connections in both Germany and Russia, may be laying the groundwork for a more serious unofficial diplomatic mission when the right moment arrives.

Comment was sought from Pofalla, but his response is not provided.

According to one source, a kind of "shift in sentiment" has occurred in Germany regarding negotiations with Russia, and several loosely coordinated initiatives are now being implemented to restore channels of communication.

At the same time, German officials claim that rumors that Merz recently rejected Steinmeier's proposal to act as a mediator in contacts with Moscow are not true.

As Russia's position on the battlefield in Ukraine deteriorates and internal problems intensify, the possibility of more active European involvement in organizing ceasefire negotiations is being discussed more actively in Europe.

Possible mediators named at various times have included Angela Merkel, Gerhard Schröder, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, his predecessor Sauli Niinistö, and former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

Last month, the head of the office of European Council President António Costa spoke twice by phone with an unnamed high-ranking aide from Putin's inner circle.

A few days later, the ambassadors of Britain, France, and Germany, coordinating their diplomacy within the informal E3 format, visited the Russian Foreign Ministry. However, according to available information, this meeting also produced no results.

It appears that all this diplomatic activity has run into a lack of real interest from the Kremlin.

Last week, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who had previously advocated for "initiating possible contacts" with Russia, told the magazine Maaseudun Tulevaisuus that he had changed his mind and now considers such negotiations futile without the participation of the United States.

It is unclear what Germany could achieve through bilateral negotiations with Russia — even if they are unofficial — since any serious initiatives would inevitably require coordination with at least Ukraine, Britain, France, and the European Commission.

In addition, it is difficult to name a German politician who could credibly lead such a process.

In Ukraine and several European countries, distrust of Germany persists due to its many years of close relations with Russia.

Schröder is considered completely discredited because of his friendship with Putin and consistent defense of Russian interests.

Steinmeier is also viewed with suspicion because of his many years of rapprochement policy with Moscow before 2022.

Merkel stated that no one had approached her with an offer to become the European Union's special representative. Moreover, in her opinion, Putin will not negotiate with a European representative who does not himself possess real political power."