OPEC+ plans to revise baseline production levels for calculating 2027 quotas

At the September 6 meeting, OPEC+ countries will most likely not change oil production parameters for October. The alliance's participants intend first of all to take up the revision of baseline production levels that will be applied to calculate quotas for 2027, as a result of which a further increase in supplies may be temporarily put on pause.

In August, the group already agreed to increase output for September, completing the phased unwinding of the voluntary cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day introduced in 2023. At the same time, actual production by a number of participants still remains below the established target indicators.

Additional influence on the market is exerted by the conflict surrounding Iran and disruptions in oil export deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, against the backdrop of which OPEC+ decisions have recently carried less weight. The organization also retains another package of restrictions, covering most of the 21 member countries and in effect until the end of 2026. The discussion of the new baseline levels will take place later this year, in connection with which the alliance may refrain from further increasing production in the fourth quarter.