Africa has unanimously backed Infantino, while the split in UEFA goes on
The past week produced two documents worth reading side by side. On the same day, Oct. 8, UEFA announced that the demand for a change of FIFA's leadership is shared by all of its members but one, while the Confederation of African Football said that all 54 of its federations support Gianni Infantino unconditionally. Yet one of the European federations listed among the signatories keeps saying the opposite in public.
The closer the March election comes, the clearer it is that the public arithmetic of this campaign is made up not of votes but of statements, and that those statements increasingly contradict one another. The past week brought several confirmations of this at once, all of them fitting into a single day.
Speaking on Oct. 8 at a strategy conference in Cape Verde, the president of the Confederation of African Football, Patrice Motsepe, said that all 54 African federations support Gianni Infantino unanimously and unconditionally. Africa is FIFA's largest confederation by number of votes: its associations make up more than a quarter of the 211 that will elect the president.
The same day, UEFA published the outcome of a meeting of national associations in Berlin. The key phrase of that document is what made it news: the European confederation and all the national associations, with the exception of the Association of Football Federations of Azerbaijan, agreed on a clear direction for FIFA reform.
"However, institutional reform alone will not be enough. FIFA also needs new leadership: a respected and unifying leader with deep roots in football, with the vision and experience to lead, the ability to inspire trust across different regions and an unconditional commitment to development, reform, integrity and independence," the statement says.
The European confederation's president, Aleksander Ceferin, put its position more sharply: "The time has come to say: 'Enough.' Imagine that behind your back people are discussing the sale of your heritage, or handing out a peace prize without consulting you in advance. Football is bigger than those who run it. No one has the right to sell its future. Football is not for sale. Not today, not tomorrow." He was referring to the plan to sell part of the World Cup rights to private investors and to the award Infantino presented to U.S. President Donald Trump.
Two statements, one date, 54 votes in each column.
What the UEFA statement does not say
It is worth looking at the verb the European confederation used to describe its members' position. UEFA's own release does not say "signed", it says "agreed", although a number of outlets have reported it precisely as a signing. UEFA published no list of federations, no voting results and not a single signature under the document.
What we have is a confederation's statement about what its members' position is, drawn up by the confederation itself and released by it. There is only one way to verify such a claim: to compare it with what those same federations say in their own name. And here the picture turns out to be more complicated than the one declared.
What Azerbaijan said
For two months from the start of the crisis, AFFA did not state its position: not when the FIFA Forward Enterprise project was announced, not when it was withdrawn, not when the boycott of tournaments was declared, not when it was suspended. The silence broke on Sept. 29, the day Infantino was received in Baku by President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev: the association put out a statement ending with a direct formulation, that AFFA fully supports FIFA and Gianni Infantino.
The position, then, was stated by the federation itself, publicly and in its own name, nine days before the Berlin meeting. The fact that UEFA set Azerbaijan apart in a parenthesis in its release only confirms that in Nyon they know this.
What Latvia said
Far more curious is the story of the federation UEFA did not set apart.
Back on July 27, a day before the plan to sell stakes in the World Cup became known, the president of the Latvian Football Federation, Vadim Lyashenko, publicly praised Infantino's work and nominated him for a new term. When the scandal broke out in full force a week later, the tone in Riga changed: on Aug. 4 the LFF said it was in no hurry to name a favorite in the coming election.
The pause lasted until the end of September. On Sept. 28 the federation's new office on E. Melngaila Street was opened with Infantino himself present; the FIFA president met Lyashenko and Economy Minister Viktors Valainis, and the meeting discussed plans by Latvia and Ukraine to hold a joint under-20 World Cup, the development of football infrastructure and the economic returns from major international tournaments.
"Gianni Infantino has done many things that are hard to list in one minute, but I am grateful to him for his support around the world, for his contribution to the development of football. Of course, Latvia is always on his side. He can count on our support," Lyashenko said after the office opening.
That position did not change after the Berlin meeting either. As the Latvian outlet Delfi reported on Oct. 10, the head of the LFF confirmed that the federation would go on supporting Infantino, even though almost all UEFA members, Latvia included, are listed among those who declared a loss of confidence in FIFA's leadership.
Three days, three capitals
The visit to Riga fell on the same days as two other meetings between the FIFA president and heads of state. On Sept. 28 Infantino was in Latvia, on the 29th he was received in Baku by Ilham Aliyev, and on the 30th in Tashkent by Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Then, on Sept. 29 and 30, came three statements by national federations in support of the incumbent FIFA president.
In those days Azerbaijan was preparing to host the first FIFA U-15 World Cup and festival in history, which starts in Baku on Oct. 24, while the under-20 World Cup will be hosted jointly by Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan.
A view from outside
On Oct. 8 the Associated Press reported that Azerbaijan and Latvia had promised their support to Infantino and stated plainly that UEFA is not a single bloc. By the agency's count, the incumbent FIFA president already has about 90 pledged votes, against the 106 needed to win, and that at a point when the name of even one real rival had yet to be heard.
In other words, the formula "all but one" and the independent vote count part ways at the second federation already.
How this has happened before
This summer's experience is reason to treat such figures with caution, the African ones and the European ones alike. On July 30 UEFA said that all 55 of its members had unanimously approved a refusal to take part in FIFA tournaments as long as the plan to sell stakes in the World Cup remained in force. In the month the boycott formally lasted, not one European federation withdrew from a single tournament: neither those who demanded Infantino's resignation loudest, nor those who preferred to keep quiet. On Aug. 27 the boycott was suspended without ever having begun.
Since late July 1news.az has consistently written that a confederation's statement is not the same as the position of its members, and that in March it will not be six confederations voting but 211 associations one by one. The difference between a collective statement and a roll-call vote is precisely that in the second case you cannot keep quiet along with the rest.
What lies ahead
Infantino makes no secret of his intentions. "Of course I will be a candidate in the election on March 18 next year. My program, or my slogan, if you like, is very simple but at the same time very clear: 'Football belongs to everyone, everywhere in the world,'" he said, adding that FIFA intends to narrow the gap between the big footballing nations and the rest.
The first to throw down a challenge to him was the 55-year-old Ramon Vega, a former Switzerland international who played for Tottenham, Celtic, Watford and Grasshopper, ended his career in 2004 and has since worked mainly in finance. "Football does not belong to presidents, confederations or administrators. Football is bigger than any post, any person or any institution. Right now football is in intensive care, on life support. We can wait no longer. FIFA needs a new direction and fundamental reforms," he said.
It is worth bearing in mind, though, that Vega has already considered running three times, in 2015, 2019 and 2022, and has never once managed to secure the minimum backing of five national federations out of 211.
The next meeting of UEFA's 55 national associations will be held before Nov. 17, the day before nominations close. The European confederation still has no single candidate: Nasser al-Khelaifi withdrew his candidacy on Aug. 12, and Aleksander Ceferin declined to run, explaining that he carries more weight if he is not seeking the post himself.
Winning requires 106 votes out of 211.
